Cubs and M’s swap dirty laundry
December 18, 2009 12 Comments
The long awaited trade of Milton Bradley finally took place earlier today. The deal turns out to be a case of the Cubs trading a player and contract they didn’t want to Seattle for Carlos Silva, a right handed pitcher and contract that the M’s didn’t want. The M’s also sent the Cubs $9 million. When you compare what was owed the players over the next two years the M’s are actually paying the Cubs $7 million to make this deal.
From a baseball standpoint the Mariners got the better end of the deal. Bradley will be able to serve as their DH and should feel more comfortable in the laid back Pacific Northwest.
Still it was a deal Hendry had to make. Bradley and the Cubs for whatever reason were just a very very bad match. Jim Hendry acknowledged that today:
“In hindsight, it was an acquisition I’m responsible for that didn’t work out,” he said of Bradley’s $30 million deal. “I bear the responsibility for that not working out.”
For his part it appears that Milton Bradley accepts his share of the blame for what happened:
According to one of his close friends, Bradley believes the blame should be 50-50 between himself and the Cubs.
As someone who liked the signing of Bradley last winter, it was hard to watch him crash and burn the way he did with the Cubs. I think that this deal had to be done. Both for the good of the Cubs and for Bradley. The opportunity for Bradley to succeed with the Mariners is in front of him. The Mariners are putting together a real nice retooled club. Bradley can be a big part of that and he won’t have to worry about all of the ‘outside noise’ that surrounds the Chicago Cubs.
As for Carlos Silva. To put it real bluntly, his contract has been an absolute trainwreck for the Mariners. The fact that they actually found a team to take him has to be a relief. The Cubs will have Silva compete for a back end of the rotation spot, but there is a real good chance he will end up being a middle reliever for Lou Piniella in 2010.
According to the Seattle Times here is the latest on Silva:
Silva had damage to his rotator cuff and labrum last season and hasn’t really pitched since May, other than a couple of relief efforts. But the Cubs are willing to take that chance
and this:
The pitcher has been down in Venezuela throwing in that country’s winter league. I’m told his trademark sinker, missing last season, is looking more sharp. The injury may have had something to do with that, but who knows? He’s given up a .400 batting average to opponents in the nine innings he’s thrown down there. The Cubs obviously see something they like. Yes, they would likely have taken a warm body to trade away Bradley, who has burned all of his Chicago bridges. But they would not have taken an injured player.
So the Cubs will try and catch lightning in a bottle with Silva. If they don’t this season, it will be interesting to see if they are willing to eat his contract for 2011.
While some of Cubdom rejoices that Bradley is gone, the team now finds itself in the position that they are not as good as they were before the trade. Hendry’s offseason just started. A CF signing will probably follow and some bullpen help too.
“While some of Cubdom rejoices that Bradley is gone, the team now finds itself in the position that they are not as good as they were before the trade.”
Nicely said…this is what I have been trying to put into words all day. That OBP is tough to replace. Neither Scotty Pos nor Byrd could put up those numbers. I am glad that it is done with, so we can focus on the remaining pieces.
js, I’m not sure any Cubs fans have supported Bradley than those on Another Cubs Blog (myself and others). It was a great sign at the time based on talent level. That’s undeniable.
There’s more to baseball than OBP. OBP only tells us how often a player got on base. It doesn’t tell us how many bases he advanced (slugging), it doesn’t tell us about his baserunning, and it doesn’t tell us about his defense.
Byrd has nowhere near the potential that Milton Bradley has, but Byrd, because you can count on him to play in 150 games, has as much value as Bradley. Bradley’s projected wins above replacement using the CAIRO projections and their UZR/150 projections was 2.1. Byrd is somewhere between 1.8 WAR and 2.2 WAR.
If we project Bradley to get 400 plate appearances (.369 wOBA, +1 run fielding, which he was not close to last year), he’s worth 2.0 WAR.
If we project Byrd to get 550 PA (.340 wOBA, which may be low since he’s moving to the NL Central, -2 runs fielding), he’s worth 1.9 WAR.
You lose the upside for sure, but you gain some reliability because based on Bradley’s injury history he probably won’t get 400 PA.
The difference between Byrd and Bradley is defensive position and health. Byrd has the advantage in that he plays the tougher defensive position and he also has the advantage in that he’s healthier than Bradley. Bradley has the advantage in that he’s simply a better hitter no matter how you look at it. It’s just we’re likely to see Micah Hoffpauir in RF for 200 to 300 PA or more if Bradley is the RF.
The Cubs got a crappy deal out of this, but saved money and if that money allows them to get Byrd then they come out of this no worse than they were yesterday. If they go and sign Ankiel then they’re just idiots.
MB just scared the hell out of me because if Hendry also believes that Byrd is basically as valuable as Bradley, he’ll be sticking a 3 year, $30 million deal under Byrd’s nose at any moment.
According to rumors, the Cubs are trying to get him for 2 years. I’m guessing is going to be a very favorable deal for the Cubs.
thanks, guys! Now you’ve got that damn Don Henley song stuck in my head!
DIRTAY LAUNDRAY!
mb…your analysis is pretty much spot on. The piece about the Hoff getting over 200 looks with Milton in right is sort of the key point.
That said…who is your plan B if Byrd falls through? I guess I’d have to say Scotty P, but there is no bat. Ankiel? I just don’t know.
if byrd doesn’t work out, i am open to hendry making a deal to fill the cf spot at this point.
Agreed, wpbc. There’s also no reason a deal with Byrd should fall through. The Cubs aren’t the Nationals. They need to realize that. the one damn benefit to being a large market team is that they can offer more for the same player. So unless the Yankees or Red Sox get involved, there’s no reason whatsoever that Marlon Byrd shouldn’t be a Cub in 2010.
agreed md. with gardner and melky now off the table, i’m not sure if many more cf will be dealt this offseason. it starts to look like byrd or bust. here’s hoping the cubs don’t bust, because that means pods or ankiel. yuck.
i saw someone tweet the idea of nyjer morgan. but i have seen no links or backup to that rumor. he intrigues me (probably just because of the speed element…similar to gardner).
wpbc…first I have heard of a Morgan trade. His numbers are pretty amazing to me too. I know it is a horrible comparison, but his numbers make Theriot look weak last season.
NM—42 SB, .307 AVG, .388 SLG, 120 games
RT—21 SB, .284 AVG, .369 SLG, 154 games
Granted, Riot would have benefited from some time off, but those numbers are pretty impressive.
yeah, it looks like it was just an unsubstantiated rumour js. i love that speed though.
That is too bad. Back to your previous post…I see the Muskrat has an article about Grabow gunning for Capps on cubs.com. I’d like to see that happen, not as much as a CF deal, of course.