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A couple of items involving the Cubs bullpen took place earlier today:

1. The Cubs signed John Grabow to a two year deal.

The Chicago Cubs and John Grabow have agreed to terms of a two-year contract that will pay the left-handed set-up man close to $7.5 million, according to a source familiar with the situation.

Maddog at ACB has a look inside Grabow’s numbers and the signing:

It’s rather odd a team that has the self-imposed payroll limitations it has for 2010 would sign a setup man, but whatever. Grabow’s park-adjusted WAR (before adding in leverage) was 1.0 in 2009. From 2006 to 2008 Grabow was worth 2.9 WAR. His career FIP is 4.18 and his Bill James projection for 2010 is a 4.17 FIP. He had a combined 4.20 FIP in 2009.

Multi-year deals were signed for about $4.7 million per win last offseason. That would make the dollar per WAR value for 2010 around $5.17 million assuming the normal 10% increase. The value of the win would be $5.687 million in 2011. The average value over those 2 years is $5.4 million. The Cubs are paying him $7.5 million over 2 years meaning the Cubs have valued Grabow as providing 1.4 WAR over 2 years. Based solely on his park-adjusted WAR since 2006 that’s more than reasonable.

I agree with md, it is odd that a team that is strapped for cash this offseason is throwing money at setup guy. But ohh well.

UPDATE 9:40 — Dave Cameron at Fangraphs takes Hendry to task for overpaying Grabow based on his ERA:

Once again, we’re witness to the power of ERA as a negotiating tool. Over the last two seasons, Grabow’s thrown nearly 150 innings and posted an ERA of 3.09, giving the impression that he’s a high quality LH reliever. Yet again, ERA misleads.

Grabow’s FIP the last two years? 4.37, thanks to an atrociously high walk total. The entirety of his low ERA over the last two years is driven by an 82 percent rate of stranding runners, which is just not sustainable. He’s succeeded by putting men on base and then wiggling out of jams, but that’s not the same thing as pitching well.

It would be one thing if Grabow had developed this knack for stranding runners by elevating his strikeout rate, but he’s not any different now than he has been for his entire career.

Instead, he’s just posted artificially low BABIPs the last two years, and by not giving up hits, he was able to keep the guys he walked on the bases. That’s not a recipe for success.

Grabow is a generic left-handed middle reliever, the kind of guy you’re fine having for the league minimum but that you don’t really want to pay any real money to. He’s eminently replaceable, but the Cubs have decided to commit real money to him over multiple years because he has a low ERA.

The Cubs have money, and $3.75 million isn’t going to drastically alter their budget, but this is just a waste of cash. Betting on reliever ERA is a great way to get burned, and given Grabow’s actual talent levels, the Cubs are unlikely to be very happy with how this deal turns out for them.

Andy Dolan from Desipio breaks it down like only he can:

I actually think Grabow is kind of good. He’s a nice piece to have in a bullpen. But at a price. And that price is not $3.75 million a year. Especially when your new owners have told you that the payroll doesn’t get to go up too much this year.

Especially when you have a history of overpaying…well, everybody, and your job might not be there for you next year if you keep that kind of thing up.

So the only thing I can surmise is that either:

a) Jim Hendry has no clue what players are actually worth on the open market, or

b) He wants to get fired.

and

But there’s no way in hell that he’s worth $3.75 million a year on the open market. There will be relievers hanging out at Home Depots in Arizona and Florida hoping that a pitching coach will pull up in a pickup truck during the first few weeks of spring training. And the guy who is assembling the Cubs, with a severely limited ability to add payroll is doing shit like this?

This is when people who advocated the Cubs hire a vice president with actual baseball experience to be the guy in between the Beaver and Hendry have a point. They said that Hendry needs a boss who can tell him, “I don’t think that’s a good idea.”

Here’s a better point. If your general manager needs somebody else to tell him when he’s about to piss $7 million up a rope, you need a new general manager.

The quicker Ricketts realizes he needs a new GM the better.

2. The Cubs actually found a taker for Aaron Heilman. The Cubs sent him to Arizona for two minor leaguers. Paul Sullivan has the details on the prospects the Cubs received in return:

In return, the Cubs received left-handed reliever Scott Maine, who went 4-5 with seven saves and a 2.90 ERA at Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno, and first baseman Ryne White, who hit .266 with six homers and 52 RBI at Class-A Visalia.

I know nothing about either of these guys. I just find the fact that another team would give up anything (including a fungo) shocking.

UPDATE 9:20 — R.J. Anderson at Fangraphs with more on the prospects and the deal:

Scott Maine is a stout lefty with impressive strikeout rates out of the bullpen. He’s 24-years-old and Drafted out of the university of Miami in 2007, Maine throws from a low arm slot and has a fastball that breaks into the low-90s as well as a slurve. The mandatory Tommy John surgery is out of the way and it’ll be interesting to see if deception is the key for Maine or if his stuff can hold up in the higher minors.

Ryne White is a short left-handed first baseman drafted in 2008 from Purdue. He’s shown the propensity to draw a walk but flashes few other skills despite a supposedly quick bat. He played some outfield in college and given his height, there’s a chance he could return there sometime in the future.

Considering Heilman was on his way out for nothing, it’s hard to say the Cubs lose out on this deal. Maine might be a useful relief arm sooner than later, and who knows what the future holds for White. Obviously this isn’t an ideal situation, but at least they didn’t pay a marginal reliever seven million dollars today. As for Arizona, I’m not sure giving up anything of value for a middle reliever is a good play, especially given Arizona’s placement on the win curve.