The Cubs interweb-o-sphere is running with the story that Ryan Dempster is on the verge of signing a big contract with the Chicago Cubs. Longtime Cub scribe, Paul Sullivan updates the latest on the Trib’s baseball blog Hardball:
The Cubs are expected to announce soon that Ryan Dempster has agreed to a four-year deal, team sources said Tuesday.
Foxsports.com reported Tuesday that the two sides were close to four-year deal for a little more than $50 million, making Dempster the second-high paid pitcher on the team.
Cubs general manager Jim Hendry was unavailable for comment. Dempster’s agent, Craig Landis, did not return phone calls.
Jim Hendry has never believed in the ‘buy low, sell high’ way of doing business. I predict this might go down as one of his worst decisions as Cubs General Manager.
Yep, I don’t want the Cubs to make this deal. There is no way Dempster is worthy of a 4 year deal. As a matter of fact a 4 year deal for him after one season as a starter is laughable. The dollar amount is even more of a joke. It appears that they will make this deal though. I guarantee that we will never see Ryan Dempster have a season like he did in 2008. I know that the price of pitching is very high in major league ball, but at this point the Cubs should pursue other options and take the sandwich pick for Dempster. By all reports the Cubs are not going to do that.
they are going to give a 32-year-old guy with a career 4.64 era as a starter a four-year, $50mm deal?
who is it exactly that thinks jim hendry is a good general manager?
Not sure how this gets you past the first round unless you are going to add something else which does not seem likely. My guess is Ryan got a bit nervous after he discovered how not “hot” of a free agent he was and Hendry obliged him and took cover in his traditional low cost some reward CYA approach. (I normally would quip that a Jason Dubois deal would be next but that would be trite.) Contrary to some media sentiment that JH has a great repoire with his players so he signs them for discounts (DL, AR, now RD) could it be that no other team really covets them as difference makers.
And the signing is official.
The Cubs just dropped $52 million on a low tier starting pitcher coming off a career year. Nice fucking work.
one of the things that a gm has to be able to do is recognize when he catches lightning in a bottle. that is exactly what happened with dempster in 2008. you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure that out. he’s not the first guy to have a career year in a contract season.
last spring, this guy was in a battle for the fifth slot in the rotation with lieber and marshall. now he’s getting a $52 million deal. lmao. this thing smells. shame on jim dandy for falling prey to this old trick.
could it be that no other team really covets them as difference makers
outside of ramirez, i tend to believe that to be true misfit. i still think ramirez is one helluva player.
Actually, Dempster is worth $51 million over 4 years. Exactly $51 million.
It’s a 3-year deal for $38 million with an option for the 4th year. It’s believed to be a player option.
I know most don’t like Dempster (I’m not entirely sure it’s based on anything worthwhile), but this is a good deal for the Cubs. Very good deal.
Actually, Dempster has a less than 4% chance of being worth exactly 51 million over 4 years.
Fixed
Glad to see the confidence md. (I wish I shared in it)
I respect your opinion md, but the only way that this becomes a very good deal for the Cubs is if they get two good seasons out of Dempster as a starter. If he goes back to Ryan Dempster form or breaks down (which you have to factor in when you consider the jump in ip last season) this deal is not a good deal for the Cubs, not good at all. By years 3 and 4 we will look at this deal and hope a team will be willing to take Dempster and his contract off the Cubs hands.
You can only evaluate the deal as it was given out today. What happens past today is anyone’s guess. Based on the information we have today, right now, at this moment, Ryan Dempster is worth $51 million. I have no idea if he’ll end up being worth that and neither does Hendry or Dempster or anyone, but as I said, today, he’s worth that much money.
I think a lot of Cubs fans issues with Dempster (mine as well before I looked into as much I could) are more perception than reality. The reality of Ryan Dempster does not match the perception. I’m as guilty as anyone, but I was wrong.
As for what will happen, I haven’t the foggiest clue. He could break down in spring training. He could win the Cy Young. I have no idea. All I know is what can be reasonably expected out of him and in all honesty, that’s all that matters.
I see too much risk to give this guy a 4 year deal at $13M per. It’s just too risky IMHO.
just so i’m clear, i think that part of a gm’s job is weighing the risk that is involved signing any player to a long term contract. jim hendry seems to be comfortable with taking this risk on dempster. that’s what is most important in all of this.
i think what dempster did for this club last season was fantastic. before that he did a good job closing for the cubs. since he has been with this team he has done a nice job. this isn’t personal. i am just not comfortable with the cubs giving him 4 years, after one year of starting. that’s just me.
md, tells us yes ryan dempster is worth the boatload of cash he just received, and tells me i am an idiot (but in a nice manner). just kidding md! lol
http://www.anothercubsblog.net/index.php/site/comments/is-ryan-dempster-worth-it/
I sure hope it didn’t come off that way, ccd. I just ran the numbers that we have with the most accurate method to find the dollar value.
Ultimately though as I think you already said, Dempster is worth what he’ll get paid and therefore is worth the contract. He definitely would have gotten more elsewhere.
i’m kidding!
While Dempster’s 4.64 ERA as a starter might have a tiny bit of value to someone, it’s pretty much useless information when it comes to what Ryan Dempster is worth. First of all, he’s throwing out 4 years of data, which also happen to be the 4 most recent years other than 2008. Dempster’s ERA as a Cub in 461.1 innings is 3.59. I’m sorry, but you don’t get to throw out 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 while including the years prior to that and the one year after that. It’s not even remotely close to something that might have much value. Seriously, his ERA on Tuesday’s on the road would be only slightly less valuable information.
that’s a fair critique, md.
perhaps i’m simply being incorrigible. dempster has been a decent player for this club on the whole, and getting second-tier money perhaps isn’t obscene given two of his last four seasons were good.
but i do nevertheless think the odds are against them getting value going forward. and i think particularly the deal will, in the context of the changed economics of this country, be seen as unreasonable within two seasons. good chance i’m wrong, of course.
Good chance I’m wrong too. We’ll both probably be wrong somehow.
My opinion is that the overall odds of any player living up to a sizable contract (even one as “small” as Dempster’s) is against the odds. I would say, however, that Dempster has a better chance to do so than several of the pitchers signed over the last 12 months and a few who will be signed over the next few months.
One thing I may look into in the next month or two are similar pitchers to Ryan Dempster in terms of pitchers who did one of two things: moved into the rotation in their 30s and had success as well average-ish pitchers who suddenly turned in over 200 innings that were about the 8th to 10th best in baseball, or thereabouts. Surely there are several examples. It would be in no way conclusive, but I’m interested to see how these pitchers did after a successful season.
It really seems hard to believe that someone can be as good as Dempster was one year and then not be that valuable after a season like that. I mean, he wasn’t just good or above average, he was great. If Dempster had turned in a season similar to Kyle Lohse I’d probably be more on the side of you guys here, but there’s a huge difference between Kyle Lohse’s very good season (career year) and Ryan Dempster’s outstanding season (also a career year).
I don’t have any idea what I’ll find and as mentioned, the sample won’t be that large, but I’m guessing such pitchers remained more than serviceable. I think Dempster was serviceable before 2008. Probably a bit better than most of us give him credit for.
He is awfully frustrating, which I think colors our opinions of him.
Wow! I go on hiatus from all things Cub for a few months and come back to find out CCD has started a new blog. Cool. Nice to see GM as well.
I found it ironic that I began to lose interest in the Cubs once they became good. My interest began to wain towards the end of the year when the playoffs were in the bag. I barely watched the playoffs (though I was on a trip and it was hard to watch). I scream and yell and let them ruin my day/week/month/year when they suck but when they are good I barely pay attention.
Anyway, I think Dempster has been much better to the Cubs then decent GM, especially when you consider the year he had last year as a starter. And I couldn’t care less about the contract or any players contract on the Cubs as long as it doesn’t constrain them from paying someone else. The Cubs are one of a handful of teams where “is he worth the money” just doesn’t matter. The questions should be: is he any good? Or is he worth what they had to give up?
Answering the “is he any good” questions, I think Dempster has been solid (great this past year) as a Cub and the contract they signed him won’t hurt them in signing others, and lastly they didn’t have to give up anyone for him. Hopefully he puts together a few more years like last. I suspect he will be pretty good over the next few but not like ‘08.