q&a with maddog on peavy

The Jake Peavy to the Cubs trade talk has really taken on a life of its own this week. When it comes to Cubs trade talk you can’t beat the analysis that comes from Maddog and all of the fellas over at AnotherCubsBlog. For my money, ACB is one of the best Cubs blogs out there.

I sent MD a few eMails and he was kind enough to answer some questions I have on Peavy. Here is what he responded:

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wpbc: How good is Jake Peavy right now? In your opinion, where does he rank in terms of Starting RHP’s in MLB?

maddog: Peavy is a very good starting pitcher. I think he’s a bit overrated due to the large park he’s pitched in. His career road ERA is 3.80 while it’s 2.77 pitching in the Grand Canyon they call PETCO. Pitchers perform better at home so it’s not fair to say we’d expect a 3.80 ERA out of him away from PETCO, but it is a concern nonetheless. However, he’s still a really good pitcher. The only righties I’d prefer over Peavy (off the top of my head) would be Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum. I think Lincecum is the best pitcher in all of baseball. The Cubs drafted him several years ago in the later rounds, but he wisely elected to go to college. Rich Harden is better than Jake Peavy, but as you know, he has trouble making starts.

The 2009 CAIRO projections show Peavy to be the 4th best pitcher in baseball behind Santana, Halladay, and Sabathia. The difference between Peavy and Santana? 4.9 runs saved above replacement. In other words, when you’re in that group, there’s not much difference between any of them.

wpbc: How much do you think Peavy is worth to the Cubs?

maddog: This is a trickier question than you’d normally think. As I already said, Peavy is one of the best pitchers in baseball and that’s worth a lot to almost every team, but I don’t think it’s worth as much to the Cubs as the average team. Even if they didn’t re-sign Dempster they have a great top of the rotation in Harden and Zambrano and Ted Lilly has been the 2nd best signing of the 2007 offseason behind teammate Mark DeRosa.

If Peavy weren’t available at a tremendous discount, I’d rather see the Cubs re-sign Dempster and keep the prospects they’d have to send to get Peavy. Since he is available for pennies on the dollar, there’s no reason not to get him.

wpbc: How many ballplayers and who would you be willing to part with for Peavy? Are there any youngsters you wouldn’t part with for Peavy?

maddog: I’d give up a decent amount to get Peavy and it’s really fortunate that the Cubs have a chance to get him on their terms. I expect if the Braves get a case of the stupids and up their offer that the Cubs will drop out and let the Braves get him. There aren’t any young players in the system that I’d consider untouchable. That’s not any indication of what I think about the Cubs system. It’s just for a team like the Cubs who are contending, if that piece comes along that can make a difference nobody should be untouchable.

I mentioned that the Cubs have a chance to get Peavy on their terms, but what I meant was they have a chance to get Peavy on his terms. It’s just that his terms are going to be much more favorable to the Cubs than if Peavy did not have that no-trade clause. Speaking of no-trade clauses, can you remember another player who has used that to his advantage as much as Peavy has? I’m sure it’s happened. Probably often, but the Padres are screwed. They have to trade him. Peavy will only consider 5 teams. Only 3 of those teams are interested. 1 of those teams is in the same division as the Padres and that’s just not going to happen. Peavy will use that clause to veto a trade to a team that gives up a good player for the 2009 club (Yunel Escobar for example). Not to mention, he’ll demand his no-trade clause be extended to the life of the contract and his $22 million option at the end of his deal be guaranteed.

So the Padres aren’t trading some cheap player any longer. They’re trading a player with a large contract, they aren’t controlling the negotiations, and if Peavy decides he doesn’t like the deal, he can still veto it. The Padres aren’t going to get anything in return for Peavy. Unless, as I said, the Braves get a case of the stupids and go crazy.

wpbc: If the Cubs add Peavy, do you think they still sign Dempster or another free agent?

maddog: No. They’ll offer arbitration and take the draft picks and then probably focus on re-signing Wood and getting that lefty hitter this team needs.

wpbc: Hypothetical question: would you rather the Cubs trade for Peavy and sign Dempster or just sign CC Sabathia?

maddog: I’d rather they trade for Peavy and take the 2 draft picks for Dempster. Not that I don’t think much of Dempster. He proved everybody wrong last year including myself. A reasonable projection for him in 2009 would be about a 4.00 ERA, which is pretty good these days. CAIRO projects him at 3.94. ZIPs at 4.08 (top third among starting pitchers). I just think if you have Peavy you can spend money elsewhere. As for Peavy or Sabathia, I’d rather have Peavy considering the money and, well, the weight factor.

wpbc: Do the Padres fans have an O’s hangout where we Cub fans can go for all the latest Peavy gossip San Diego style?

maddog: I’m sure there is. What about San Diego Smooth Jazz Man? He might know Deep Goat too.

wpbc: Thanks Maddog I really appreciate you taking the time to answer these questions. I look forward to having SDSJM on a future wpbc q&a, maybe I can find out what happened to his radio gig.